How is whisky faring so far in 2025?

Whisky was booming. According to Whiskystats' 2020 annual report, the volume of bottles sold at auction had grown tenfold since 2011 while the trading value rose from €2.9 million to €72.5 million. During the coronavirus pandemic, drinks multinationals saw double-digit rises in sales as consumption habits shifted. In the past five years, more than a dozen distilleries in Scotland have secured planning permission, released their first whiskies or started production (or restarted in the cases of Brora, Port Ellen and Rosebank).

But with boom typically comes bust. Since March 2022, auction prices have been sliding as eager investors sold a dream of inflated returns scramble to claw back their downpayments. Financial reports from industry giants in the past two years have made euphemistic references to “corrections” and “stabilisations”. Distilleries are pausing production rather than commencing it. We sense the tension of a bubble about to burst.

I talked in a previous post about the pitfalls of statistical analysis. Poring over quarterly reports and monthly auction activity, the current picture is a little gloomy — but could it be that we’re not seeing the wood for the turnover-shaped trees? 

Let’s take a closer look at the news served to us so far in 2025 by whisky’s biggest businesses.

Diageo: down, but not downcast

In early February Diageo released interim results covering 1 July to 31 December 2024. Organic net sales returned to growth, up by 1 per cent, but organic operating profit (factoring out unfavourable currency exchanges) was down 1.2 per cent. The decline only worsened; its full-year results, released in early August, revealed a crash in operating profit of 27.8% to US$4.3 billion, which the company attributed to “exceptional impairment and restructuring costs” and unfavourable foreign exchange. However, it did report net sales growth of 1.7% for the year with its Canadian whisky brand Crown Royal a stand-out performer.

The company has not had the rosiest 2025 so far. In March it announced a three-month production pause at its distillery in Lebanon, Kentucky, which opened in 2021 and produces Bulleit whiskeys. Then in July, it saw the departure of CEO Debra Crew. 

Interim chief executive Nik Jhangiani said the results were “in line with our guidance”. He added that the company had upped its cost-savings target to $625 million over the next three years, an increase of 25%, in a bid to strengthen its balance sheet.

Chivas Brothers: tackling declines with dynamism

At Chivas Brothers, the Scotch whisky arm of Pernod Ricard, interim results for the six months to 31 December 2024 revealed a 2 per cent drop in organic net sales. Chivas labelled it a “modest dip” resulting from “complex market dynamics”. It’s in line with the performance of its French parent company, which reported a 3 per cent decline in organic revenue to €6.59 billion over the same period.

The global picture for Chivas Brothers showed drastic variation: emerging markets such as Turkey (where sales increased by 56 per cent) and Brazil (up 8 per cent) contrasted with substantial drops in the US (down 10 per cent) and China (19 per cent).

Sales of its flagship blends Ballantine’s and Chivas Regal climbed 8 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. Its single malts fared less well; The Glenlivet dipped by almost 10 per cent, blamed on a “softening” US input, while Royal Salute sales plummeted by a fifth (20 per cent) due to tightening consumer spending in key Asian markets.

Chivas Brothers’ chairman and CEO Jean-Etienne Gourgues said the company remained “realistic” about short-term challenges in the global Scotch market but that it was taking a “dynamic” approach to brand investment in pursuit of longer-term ambitions.

Brown-Forman: challenges lead to cuts

In June, American spirits company Brown-Forman released its results for the year to 30 April 2025. Net sales were down 5% year-on-year to $4 billion, while operating profit slid by 22% to $1.1 billion. In a third-quarter update in March, the company largely attributed the fall in operating profit to its divestitures of vodka brand Finlandia and winemaker Sonoma-Cutrer (organically, profits were actually up 3%). Overall whisky sales were flat, with growth from core Jack Daniel’s whiskeys and Woodford Reserve offset by currency fluctuations and declines from super-premium Jack Daniel’s expressions. Its Tequila and RTD portfolios both fared worse, with net sales dropping 14% and 6% respectively.

While admitting the results had not met long-term growth aspirations, president and CEO Lawson Whiting said the company had “made important progress” in a challenging macroeconomic environment. However, that environment took a toll; in February Brown-Forman announced it was cutting approximately 12 per cent of its workforce, closing its Kentucky cooperage, and pausing production at Glenglassaugh Distillery (one of three it owns in Scotland alongside Benriach and GlenDronach).

Suntory Global Spirits: whiskies among the winners

There was better news for Suntory Global Spirits when it reported its full-year results for 2024 in February. The company owns an international stable of brands including Yamazaki and Hakushu in Japan, Laphroaig and Bowmore in Scotland, and Jim Beam in the US. Post-liquor tax revenue from its beverage alcohol brands totalled ¥1,055 billion (US$6.62 billion), an increase of 1 per cent over 2023. More granular data shows double-digit growth for Yamazaki and Hibiki and a minor uptick in sales for bourbon brand Jim Beam.

While acknowledging 2024 had been a challenging year, Suntory Global Spirits president and chief executive Takeshi Niinami said: “As consumer values become more diverse, we will leverage our strength of having a broad product portfolio to revitalise the market and create new demand in alcoholic beverages.”

Market forces

With pressure on sales from growing competition and changing consumer behaviour, continuing currency volatility, and punishing increases in operating costs, whisky producers have enough to contend with. Then, in January, Donald Trump returned to the White House and announced his “America first” intention to slap supposedly restitutional tariffs on foreign imports — a situation yet to be fully resolved. 

The unease is palpable. Jhangiani at Diageo said the spirits sector was still suffering from “macroeconomic uncertainty and the resulting pressure on consumers”, while Brown-Forman has noted a volatile operating environment due to “geopolitical uncertainties”.

For American distillers, continuing political and economic volatility will compound the worries. Whiting at Brown-Forman shared an expectation of “continued headwinds” into 2026. The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS) has called for a permanent return to zero-zero tariffs with major trading partners including the European Union, Canada and Mexico to protect distillers, farmers and hospitality workers. 

DISCUS may have had more cause to celebrate the US−UK trade deal, which maintained a zero-tariff policy on American spirits imports to the UK. However, British alcoholic beverage imports to the US have been slapped with a 10% tariff. 

The recently agreed free trade agreement struck between India and the UK brings better news for British distillers. The Scotch Whisky Association asserts it could boost Scotch whisky exports to the country by £1 billion over the next five years.

It’s not just political change that presents challenges — in the West, there are social considerations too.

Mintel’s July 2025 report The Future of Spirits and Liqueurs leads with an analysis of drinking trends among Gen Z. It’s well documented that this generation is drinking less —  a recent study by brewer Greene King found one in five members of Gen Z don’t drink alcohol — but they’re drinking better, choosing more complex and carefully crafted spirits from producers who align with their social and environmental values.

So, what do the numbers tell us?

The Mintel study demonstrates my concluding point: there’s generally more than one way to interpret figures and focusing on a single number or data set heightens the risk of misinterpretation. We should perhaps take a lesson from the business of whisky making: think long-term. Data is not inherently valuable but given value by its context, and it’s harder to see the big picture if you’re standing too close.